Putin's Russia
Tuesday 7 July 2009 at 10:13 While President Medvedev sat yesterday with President Obama and discussed great matters of nuclear disarmament and foreign policy, Prime Minister Putin was, as constitutionally appropriate, much more concerned with domestic management issues.
The notion that the two men are rivals is exaggerated – the redirection of Putin to domestic affairs is not merely a matter of constitutional propriety, it is one of state security. For Russia to be great, its base must be secured.
Russia’s vulnerability lies in its economic difficulties and no longer in foreign dabbling in its civil society. The long term prognosis for Russia is good if only because of its massive natural resource holdings but the short term sees issues emerging that could have serious affects on its internal stability.
A weak economy and internal instability affect Russia's ability to maintain control over its sphere of influence and invites external dabbling as the US recovers something of its former status.
There are three aspects to Putin’s determination to hold Russia together. The first is to show energy in tackling problems. The second is to start doling out state aid for the old industrial sector (machine tool and automotive).
These measures alone are clearly directed at holding the southern industrial working classes’ loyalty as growth collapses (to -8.5% in 2009) and as the Government is forced to throw cash at the banking system in order to preserve the capitalism that Russia has adopted since the fall of the Soviet Union.
The third is to recreate some Soviet-era sense of collective social and moral responsibility in campaigns against social disorder (gambling, excessive drinking, even dog mess in the streets). A ban on gambling forced the closure of casinos and gaming halls on July 1st.
Such measures may drive 'vice' underground and further into the hands of organised crime. In fact, the Russian Government is not averse to 'vice. It plans four Las Vegas-style entertainment parks in remote areas of Russia. The formerly legitimate gambling businesses are decamping to Belarus and Georgia.
As elsewhere in the global economy, there is considerable uncertainty as to the future. The impending disaster this winter is not in question. What is in question is the long term prognosis for Russia.
Analyses range from the gloomy ‘Japanese scenario’ (a culture of drudgery in conditions of low or no economic growth) to a major natural resources-led dynamic recovery within two to three years and the bouncy view of some radical liberals that creative destruction will merely strengthen Russian capitalism.
The scale of Russia’s natural wealth does not suggest worse than these scenarios economically but social and political effects are an issue so soon after the collapse of the Soviet ideal.
There are not unreasonable post-credit crunch questions being asked about the value of capitalism to the Russian people and State (often more aligned than in Western liberal societies) but the return of communism is not on the agenda.
The Government’s general drive is towards liberalism within a secure framework (effectively authoritarian market capitalism) but there is an ersatz-communist alternative in the militarised national socialist authoritarianism of the Eurasianists.
A combination of popular discontent in an aging industrial and military infrastructure and desperation on the part of the authorities could drive Russia in this direction under severe pressure. It is this pressure that Putin is seeking to pre-empt.
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Belarus, Georgia, Medvedev, Putin, Russia, Russian economy, Russian organised crime, Soviet social policy in Europa