Short Note - Update on Iran
Thursday 2 July 2009 at 08:54 Media commentary on the Iranian Presidential election continues. It is sour but it adds little to the fact on the ground which is that the street protest is over. Ahmedinejad has been confirmed as President which is much as we predicted would happen at the beginning.
The main theme of the commentary, as much in hope as from any rational assessment of the facts, is that the regime faces a crisis of legitimacy and that power struggles within the system will persist for some time to come.
It would be more accurate to say that the regime is facing a challenge to its legitimacy which may or may not be legitimate in itself. In response, the Iranian opposition is moving into a new phase, circling the wagons against repression with an attempt at unity.
Similar calls declaring the illegitimacy of the Ahmedinejad Government were issued by Moussavi, Karroubi (the second ‘reformist’ candidate) and the largest reformist party Mosharekat.
We are getting to that point where we will see either a new and vigorous reformist movement operating within the system or a direct threat to the regime being suppressed because it insists on challenging the system at its very core.
The EU’s brinkmanship with Iran continues. A (wobbly) deadline of this weekend was set for the withdrawal of its Ambassadors from Tehran if four local employees of the British Embassy were not released. These employees are being released but at the convenience and on the terms of Tehran.
As for a forthcoming G8 Statement, the signals are that the members are unlikely to condemn Iran for vote-rigging (there is simply no hard evidence of this). Any criticism is likely to be of the regime’s crackdown - an interference by very definition in the internal affairs of another sovereign State.
As might be expected, the Iranians are also toughening their stance on the nuclear issue, indicating the exclusion of the EU from talks and so placing the onus on the US to maintain its engagement.
If you want to follow TPPR events and commentary, try http://twitter.com/TPPRNews
If you want to follow Pendry White events and commentary, try http://twitter.com/PendryWhite