Analysts have been exploring various scenarios for the next stage of the global economic crisis – hoping for one that allows Governments to unwind their emergency measures. This very much depends on how the US and eurozone economies develop in the coming months.

Uncertainty is high so we expect no precipitate moves from the Federal Reserve or the ECB but central bankers clearly want to unwind their easing measures safely without reversing the tentative signs of a return to growth.

A Financial Times analysis on June 29th suggested four scenarios: a) a steady low inflation/low interest rate recovery; b) a faster recovery than expected; c) a fall back to deflation and continued recession; and d) stagflation because of soaring commodity prices (primarily, oil).

The consensus forecasts are for a return to 2007 levels of growth for the US (and rising) by mid-2010 and a return to some, if very low, growth for the eurozone around the same time. Consensus forecasts on inflation are 2% or below in 2010 but with the Eurozone lower than the US.

But this air of uncertainty in itself tells you to be wary of talk of premature recovery. Sure enough, July 2nd saw a bigger-than-expected fall in US employment that had a major knock-on effect on shares and commodity prices.

The US unemployment rate rose from 9.4% to 9.5%, the highest level since the early 1980s. Since the US is the motor for global recovery, this is serious news for the rest of the world. It will be particularly worrying for the British whose entire fiscal strategy is built on the deus ex machina of Obamanomics.

There has also been growing interest in the real effects of high public spending in the US. The Administration is letting it be known that it calculates that the US economy will see the boost from emergency spending within the next few months.

It is clearly nervous that political pressures might result in a tightening of monetary and fiscal policy before recovery is well established. It is tentatively suggesting that the economy is close to ‘stabilisation’ but this is rapidly becoming a matter of faith rather than certain knowledge.

Uncertainty is the enemy of business but we are living in a very uncertain period with conflicting signals coming from various parts of the global economy. We should expect volatility and further aftershocks from the initial crisis, with the situation becoming clarified by the early Autumn.

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