Short Note - Update on Iran

Media commentary on the Iranian Presidential election continues. It is sour but it adds little to the fact on the ground which is that the street protest is over. Ahmedinejad has been confirmed as President which is much as we predicted would happen at the beginning.

The main theme of the commentary, as much in hope as from any rational assessment of the facts, is that the regime faces a crisis of legitimacy and that power struggles within the system will persist for some time to come.

It would be more accurate to say that the regime is facing a challenge to its legitimacy which may or may not be legitimate in itself. In response, the Iranian opposition is moving into a new phase, circling the wagons against repression with an attempt at unity.

Similar calls declaring the illegitimacy of the Ahmedinejad Government were issued by Moussavi, Karroubi (the second ‘reformist’ candidate) and the largest reformist party Mosharekat.

We are getting to that point where we will see either a new and vigorous reformist movement operating within the system or a direct threat to the regime being suppressed because it insists on challenging the system at its very core.

The EU’s brinkmanship with Iran continues. A (wobbly) deadline of this weekend was set for the withdrawal of its Ambassadors from Tehran if four local employees of the British Embassy were not released. These employees are being released but at the convenience and on the terms of Tehran.

As for a forthcoming G8 Statement, the signals are that the members are unlikely to condemn Iran for vote-rigging (there is simply no hard evidence of this). Any criticism is likely to be of the regime’s crackdown - an interference by very definition in the internal affairs of another sovereign State.

As might be expected, the Iranians are also toughening their stance on the nuclear issue, indicating the exclusion of the EU from talks and so placing the onus on the US to maintain its engagement.

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Short Note - Update on Iran

The Guardian Council has finally confirmed Mahmoud Ahmedinejad as the victor in the June 12th election. He will be President for a second term. The security forces, including the Basij, were on high alert.

The propaganda war between the two sides continues but the protests are virtually over, thanks to a firm crackdown by the regime. The bulk of the Western media remains firmly positioned on the side of the reformers.

Moussavi continued to try to keep his campaign for a re-run of the election going to the bitter end but it was steadily being contained. The reward for his persistence may now be some form of legal action against him and his supporters.

The diplomatic centre of attention is the arrest of nine (five were later released) Iranians who worked at the British Embassy. This was condemned by all 27 nations of the EU at the Foreign Ministers Summit in Corfu with a warning that they would respond firmly to any ‘harassment or intimidation’ of their staff.

The EU governments then warned Iran that they could recall their ambassadors and implicitly threatened sanctions if the remaining four British embassy Iranians were not released.

Analysts are becoming increasingly pessimistic about Obama’s strategy of engagement and see some serious re-thinking going on in Washington in due course.

The US continues to keep open the door to talks with Iran in Paris, but the room for manouevre must have been limited by Sarkozy’s aggressive comments on the regime. The European allies (the US is not in a position to go it alone on this matter) have been far more ‘hawkish’ than Washington.

The stakes are now very high, if only because the narrative (true or false) of Western intervention increases the chances of Iran deciding to defy both the West and Israeli threats and just going for its bomb.

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