The Guardian Council has finally confirmed Mahmoud Ahmedinejad as the victor in the June 12th election. He will be President for a second term. The security forces, including the Basij, were on high alert.

The propaganda war between the two sides continues but the protests are virtually over, thanks to a firm crackdown by the regime. The bulk of the Western media remains firmly positioned on the side of the reformers.

Moussavi continued to try to keep his campaign for a re-run of the election going to the bitter end but it was steadily being contained. The reward for his persistence may now be some form of legal action against him and his supporters.

The diplomatic centre of attention is the arrest of nine (five were later released) Iranians who worked at the British Embassy. This was condemned by all 27 nations of the EU at the Foreign Ministers Summit in Corfu with a warning that they would respond firmly to any ‘harassment or intimidation’ of their staff.

The EU governments then warned Iran that they could recall their ambassadors and implicitly threatened sanctions if the remaining four British embassy Iranians were not released.

Analysts are becoming increasingly pessimistic about Obama’s strategy of engagement and see some serious re-thinking going on in Washington in due course.

The US continues to keep open the door to talks with Iran in Paris, but the room for manouevre must have been limited by Sarkozy’s aggressive comments on the regime. The European allies (the US is not in a position to go it alone on this matter) have been far more ‘hawkish’ than Washington.

The stakes are now very high, if only because the narrative (true or false) of Western intervention increases the chances of Iran deciding to defy both the West and Israeli threats and just going for its bomb.

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