Anticipating The Iranian First Round Vote

Western media coverage of the Iranian Presidential Elections is increasing as might be expected. Western liberals continue to place their faith in a last minute boost of support for Moussavi based on economic discontent and on the youth vote, resentful of the religious police.

The colour green is being used to try to reproduce the ‘orange revolution’ effect in the Ukraine. This implies some soft power advisory influence from the US, albeit ‘unofficial’. At the moment, the war aim of the Moussavi camp is simply to ensure a run-off after the first round tomorrow.

Soft Power Pressure From The West

The US charm offensive towards Iran (which might easily be reversed with the ‘wrong’ result) culminated yesterday with Senator John Kerry referring to the Western position on nuclear enrichment as ‘ridiculous’, stating that Iran had the right to enrich (Financial Times interview today).

This throws a spanner into the works of the hard line position maintained by the previous US Administration and by the Israelis. Although not official, Kerry’s senior status hints that the line could become official under the right circumstances.

Whether directly or indirectly, as polling starts, the Iranian elite is being told, in effect, that probably it can have whatever it wants except for nuclear weaponry.

You get the sense that the Obama Administration, fresh from its ‘triumph’ in holding the line for the West in Lebanon, is almost counting some of its chickens before the eggs have quite hatched, as if it is assuming that it will be dealing with Moussavi and knows more than we do about the probable outcome.

Behind all this is the continued concern that Netanyahu’s Israel is ‘crazy’ enough to mount a strike on Iran – a decision fraught with danger to US aspirations in the region.

This could force Obama back into the Israel camp as far as the rest of the world is concerned or result in a breach with Israel that will give the President untold trouble at home.

The election of Moussavi thus becomes increasingly critical in this context. The election of a ‘moderate’ makes it infinitely easier to isolate Israel credibly on any unilateral action it may take.

The Israelis, under pressure on the Peace Process front, are intensifying their rhetoric over nuclear enrichment just as the consensus in their favour is beginning to break down in Washington and in the Allied capitals.

Kerry has also been postulating that Israel should rely on the US nuclear umbrella (implying but not stating loss of independent first use nuclear capability) which is scarcely going to be acceptable to the nationalist Israeli Right whose Russian-Jewish elements have minimal links to the West.

A ‘Green Revolution’ or a ‘Velvet Squib’?

Within Iran, the struggle for power has become increasingly bitter with Moussavi’s wife threatening legal action for comments made by the President about her academic status in the recent TV debate. If Moussavi’s side wears green, Ahmedinejad’s wears red.

Both sides have started demonstrating against each other in the street. This has raised fears that one side or the other may take to the streets if it feels that the election was stolen from it in any way – including perceived external interference.

As the election reaches its first round climax (the polls open tomorrow), the authorities seem ready to deal with an attempt at a ‘velvet revolution’ in Tehran and other cities that might yet go horribly wrong. There was an air of hysteria as the poll became a personal referendum on Ahmedinejad.

Some conservatives have begun to smell another attempt by the West to interfere in a national destiny. But the deciding factor is likely to be economic – the effects of the global crisis and of sanctions have been kicking in over recent months.

The drivers are not colour co-ordinated clothes and TV debates, but perception of economic prospects (the middle classes fear pauperisation but the poor often depend on government largesse) and of Iran’s status in the world (liberals want engagement and conservatives want an expression of national pride).

There is also an irritation with restrictions which is, in itself, a common driver amongst rising generations across the world – not excluding the West – though it is often a somewhat middle class preoccupation that can emergise conventional and conservative opinion, as the French Republic found after '68.

The Financial Times, which seems to be taking the lead in promoting the ‘green’ position, claims that the bazaaris (the conservative small shopkeeper class that underpinned the Iranian revolution but which is suffering under ‘modernisation’ and economic populism) have shifted position towards Moussavi.

The regional business communities are also said to be unhappy with poor economic performance based on less than competent interventions that have been linked by them to a shortage of finance for industry.

What To Look Out For

Although some sort of media momentum has emerged for Moussavi’s eventual victory, we remain very cautious in accepting this at face value. Despite our caution, it does seem that the ‘green rallies’, dominated in the photography by young reformist middle class women, are making a significant impact. 

They may be getting a message through that it is time for a change and that Moussavi is the future. Whether this is so, as enthusiastic sources for the Western media seem to believe, is unproven but the actual existence of a new ‘social movement’ will be clear by the weekend.

The ‘green’ organisers have now positioned thousands of supporters around the state broadcasting station as a protest against an advantage of a final broadcast given to the incumbent, while ‘green’ parades are taking place across the country.

We know that victory for Moussavi on June 12th is being talked up somewhat by Western interests but it does seem that the energy of ‘green campaigners has succeeded in making the result very uncertain. Ahmedinejad may not get his 50% to win control.

Ahmedinejad has a core vote of some 10m-12m of a voting population of around 46m, so a low turnout (as we have seen in Europe in relation to the rise of the radical right) could secure him his majority.

The challenge of the Moussavi camp is to get youthful enthusiasm to drive non-aligned and depressed reformists into the voting booths and so get the momentum for a run-off.

But forget any claims of election-fixing and biased media, the actual vote will be equally important as a test of how much the West understands Iran. If Moussavi gets his run-off with a decent vote, the momentum for change may actually be there. If he does not, a lot of journalists are going to look foolish.

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