Short Note - The Lebanese Election
Wednesday 10 June 2009 at 05:35 The recent Lebanese election was widely seen as a test of American foreign policy in Middle East. Polling had suggested the possibility that Hezbollah might actually get a marginal majority. In the event, the pro-Western March 14th coalition held on to its position. Voting was along traditional sectarian lines.
The US was mightily relieved. Hezbollah, Syria and Iran were deeply disappointed. There will be little change in the balance of power that has applied over the last few years with 71 seats for the 'pro-Western' March 14th bloc and 57 for the March 8th coalition led by Hezbollah.
In fact, some analysts think that Hezbollah will be happy with a result that has re-established its democratic credentials as a force in any dealings both with the US and with the rest of the international community as the latest round in the Peace Process unfolds.
There is uncertainty about what happens next but no party is interested in ‘crisis, deadlock and civil unrest’ (in the summary phrase of the Financial Times) although the March 8th coalition is likely to flex its muscles to maintain its position in the context of the expected Western and Saudi détente with Syria.
Post-election management of the situation started quickly, with Hariri, the likely next Prime Minister, adopting a conciliatory tone towards the opposition bloc. Interestingly, he has slightly distanced himself from the ‘pro-Western’ label in recent weeks.
He has taken a non-combative stance on Hezbollah’s independent weaponry with rhetoric targeting Israel as the local problem. The issue now is political reform to stop the opposition slowing down the liberal economic reform programme and administrative efficiency that is central to March 14th policies.
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Hariri, Hezbollah, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Peace Process, Syria, US in Muslim Lands